A Coalition government would cap Net Overseas Migration (NOM) at the number of new homes completed, under a further instalment of the opposition's migration policy to be announced by Liberal leader Angus Taylor in his budget reply on Thursday.
The opposition earlier released the first stage of its policy on migration, which proposed changes designed to better align the migrant intake with Australian values including by putting the Australian Values Statement, which migrants sign, into law.
But the opposition has been under pressure to give a number for the intake. The policy Taylor will announce will do this only indirectly and imprecisely. It is likely to face criticism from, on the one hand, those who want a precise number and on the other hand from those who say it would be too limiting to link the number so firmly to one measure.
Under the policy, each year the housing minister would report to parliament on how many new homes were completed and that number would set the ceiling for the NOM the next year.
Taylor says under Labor "migration has run miles ahead of housing and that puts pressure on rents, house prices and on every young Australian trying to get ahead".
"This is about mass migration running ahead of the homes, roads, hospitals, schools and services Australia can provide."
The opposition says that since the Albanese government came to power the population has grown by 1.8 million, including about 1.4 million migrants. But only enough homes had been built to accommodate 1.4 million people, "leaving Australia around 400,000 people short of the homes needed".
Other elements of the policy to be announced by Taylor include:
establishing a $5 billion Housing Infrastructure Fund, which the opposition says would "unlock up to 400,000 homes" by funding infrastructure for utilities, access roads and the like
slashing the National Construction Code, designed to cut the cost of building a new home by up to $70,000
abolishing a raft of Labor housing programs including Housing Australia Future Fund, Help to Buy, Build to Rent tax incentives and the New Homes Bonus. The opposition says scrapping these would produce billions of dollars in savings over the forward estimates.
Taylor will also pledge to tighten temporary migration, including international students, and commit to making the skilled migration intake focused more on "quality".
On the building code - which the government has already paused - the opposition says it had only 209 pages when it commenced in the 1980s, but was now about 2,350 pages.
"As a first step, the Coalition will prioritise unwinding the 2022 changes, including the 7 star energy efficiency and minimum accessibility changes.
"Unwinding these changes alone is estimated to save around $70,000 on the cost of a new home," the opposition says.
"By bringing down the cost, it is estimated to increase housing supply by 120,000 homes over the next 10 years.
"Australians who want to build to higher environmental or accessibility standards should be free to do so.
"But governments should not be forcing every young family to pay tens of thousands of dollars more before they can get a foot in the door."
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
