Where Power Will Come From In 2050

The goal is for Switzerland's energy supply to be carbon-neutral by 2050. This will require the electrification of transport, heating and industry, raising the annual electricity demand from the current level of 56 terawatt-hours (TWh) to around 75 TWh by 2050. At the same time, the contribution of 23 TWh from the Swiss nuclear power plants will need to be replaced.

A new report by the the Sweet-consortium external page EDGE sets out the first comprehensive investigation of how the energy transition can be implemented by 2050. The report encompasses multiple studies, which were carried out with the participation of researchers from ETH Zurich, EPFL and WSL, the Universities of Geneva and Bern, and the ZHAW.

Significantly more electricity from wind and sun

On 9 June 2024, 69 percent of Swiss voters approved the Electricity Act, which stipulates that, by 2050, Switzerland is to meet some 60 percent of its electricity demand (45 TWh per year) from new renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics, wind energy or biomass.

In the first study of the report, the researchers established that there are various routes by which Switzerland can reach the 45 TWh target. However, this will require massive expansion of photovoltaics and wind energy. Of the 45 TWh of electricity, an average of some 28 TWh would come from photovoltaic systems, 13 TWh from wind turbines, and the rest from biomass.

On average, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in Switzerland would need to grow from 6.4 gigawatts (GW) today to some 26.8 GW in 2050 - a four-fold increase. In the case of wind energy, which is vital to electricity generation in winter, a much bigger expansion would be needed. Specifically, capacity would need to increase from an average of 0.1 GW today to some 8.4 GW in 2050 - over 80 times the current figure.

"This major expansion of photovoltaics and wind energy by 2050 is almost inconceivable without effective subsidies," says Giovanni Sansavini, Professor of Reliability and Risk Engineering at ETH Zurich and one of the study's co-authors.

Limiting net imports would be expensive

The Electricity Act also stipulates that electricity net imports in winter must not exceed 5 TWh. If implemented strictly, this rule will necessitate significantly more home-grown power.

Indeed, according to the researchers' models, there will be a need for 80 percent more capacity from wind farms, 11 percent more capacity from gas-fired power stations, and 10 percent more capacity from solar power plants. Moreover, the costs of supplying electricity, which are principally made up of investment and operating costs, could increase by a fifth, and the price of electricity could more than double.

Reliance on the European electricity market

In future, the EU could reserve 70 per cent of its network capacity for trade between EU member states. The researchers therefore also model how a 70% reduction of cross-border electricity trading volume would impact the electricity mix and the electricity supply costs.

They conclude that the installed capacity of wind turbines in Switzerland would need to increase by a further 20 percent in order to absorb a 70% reduction of cross-border electricity trading volume. Furthermore, the electricity supply costs would increase by eight percent in such a scenario.

"Our results provide an impressive demonstration of how important it is for Switzerland to be seamlessly integrated into the European electricity market. Without integration, not only the cost of supplying electricity but also the electricity itself will become more expensive. It's also clear that we need more wind turbines," explains Ambra Van Liedekerke, a doctoral student in Sansavini's group and one of the study's co-authors.

According to a representative survey conducted by the Edge research consortium, around 60% of the Swiss population are in favor of closer cooperation with the EU in order to secure energy supplies. At the same time, however, around 70 percent of the approximately 2,000 people surveyed said that Switzerland should be independent in energy matters and that electricity imports are unpopular compared to domestic energy sources.

Swiss investments flow out of the country

The results of another study in the report reveal just how closely the Swiss energy system is interconnected financially with Europe: over half of all annual investments by Swiss electricity suppliers and financial investors in renewable utility-scale energy projects now flow to other European countries. These projects are powerplants with a capacity of over one megawatt. Only one percent of these investments remain in Switzerland.

The most money goes to Germany ($177 million a year on average), France ($112 million a year on average) and Italy ($43 million a year on average), and Swiss backers additionally invest $644 million outside of Europe. It is striking that almost 60 percent of this Swiss money goes towards wind energy projects. "As it seems, investors tend to finance renewable energy projects in foreign countries that they couldn't implement on the same scale in Switzerland. In this way, Switzerland is contributing to the energy transition beyond its own borders," explains Bjarne Steffen, head of the Climate Finance and Policy Group at ETH Zurich and one of the co-authors of the report.

The cost of net zero for Switzerland

A third study from the EDGE report models how expensive it could be for the Swiss population to achieve the net-zero target in the Paris Climate Agreement. The researchers assume that fossil energy prices and the production costs of many goods will rise by 2050 as a result of carbon taxes and emissions trading. This would also make many everyday products and services such as housing, energy, but also food and mobility more expensive.

Swiss households would be affected by lower income and higher prices between 2020 and 2050 and could consume less as a result. The extent of this loss depends on climate protection efforts abroad. If only Europe becomes climate neutral by 2050, the transition could cost the average Swiss household 0.63% of its consumption per year. However, if all OECD countries achieve net zero by 2050, China by 2060 and the rest of the world by 2070, the additional slowdown of economic growth could raise the cost to 0.75 per cent of the annual consumption of a Swiss household.

The fact that these costs are not higher depends on whether Switzerland can offset its emissions abroad. If that is not possible, the cost could rise to 1 percent per year and household. "When interpreting these costs, it's always important to bear in mind that the costs of unchecked CO₂ emissions would probably be much higher," says Philippe Thalmann, Professor of Economics at EPFL and one of the report's co-authors.