New data shows an iconic Australian bird may disappear within 50 years, prompting scientists to warn that the well-studied superb fairy wren may be a 'canary in a coal mine' for many lesser-known species facing similar climate change threats.
James Cook University ecologist and Associate Professor in Mathematical Modelling Martijn van de Pol was the senior author of the study, conducted with ANU and Hainan University.
He said the three-decade study of the superb fairy-wren, twice voted Australia's favourite bird, has raised serious concerns.
"Using various climate models, we found that human-induced climate change is likely to cause a high risk of population extinction within the next 50 years, even with optimistic emission scenarios," said Dr van de Pol.
He said the data revealed steep population declines driven by many subtle but accumulating effects of climate change.
"The wren suffered low breeding success during dry springs and reduced adult survival following unusually warm winters and hot summers.
"These pressures, though individually small, compound over time because of global warming. It's especially concerning as the superb fairy-wren is currently listed as a species of Least Concern, meaning it sits at the safest end of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List categories," said Dr van de Pol.
He said the findings echo widespread declines in insect-eating birds across Europe and North America, where species reliant on insects have suffered the steepest losses.
"While some of those declines stem from agricultural intensification and modern insecticides, the superb fairy wren population we studied lives outside farmland. However, its habitat is warming rapidly and temperature-driven reductions in insect availability may be a key factor," said Dr van de Pol.
He said unlike the wren, most wildlife species are not monitored continuously throughout the year, meaning many climate related impacts go undetected.
"We're now seeing a common species of Least Concern in imminent danger, with virtually no time or way to prevent it. We can only detect this in very well-studied species, meaning fairy-wrens may be the canary in the coal mine for other birds.
"The wrens' decline suggests climate change is reshaping ecosystems in ways that are both pervasive and difficult to reverse. Only long-term, fine-scale monitoring will reveal the true extent of these changes and the risks facing other species," said Dr van de Pol.
Link to paper here.
