International study shows long-term downward trend in developed countries
In a nutshell
- Trend: In many developed countries, youth crime has declined significantly over the past 20 to 30 years.
- Causes: Young people drink less alcohol, spend less uncontrolled time with their peers, and are under closer parental supervision.
- Outlook: It is not yet entirely clear what impact the pandemic will have on youth crime. However, a possible reversal of the trend would not negate the sharp decline seen in recent decades.
In numerous developed countries, youth crime has declined significantly since the 1990s. This is the conclusion reached by criminologists Dietrich Oberwittler (Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security and Law) and Robert Svensson (University of Malmö), who have summarized and evaluated the empirical research on youth crime to date. This research takes into account both official crime statistics and surveys of young people on unreported crime. The researchers also used data from an international school survey on the health behavior of young people in 36 countries, which has been ongoing since 2002.
The trend is clear: Youth crime has been declining since the 1990s. Police data show this first in the US, and later also in European countries such as Germany, Switzerland, England, and Wales. After 2015, the trend stabilized in many of the countries studied. However, the declines are not equally strong across all offenses. For example, property crimes declined more sharply than violent crimes in many countries.
At the same time, the gender gap in youth crime has narrowed. Whereas the crime rate used to be higher among boys than among girls, this difference has decreased in recent years because the propensity to commit crimes has fallen more sharply among boys than among girls.
Currently, the downward trend in youth crime may have reached a point where it is stagnating or even reversing. At least, that is what the latest data from some countries suggest. "The post-pandemic data are still incomplete. We cannot yet form a conclusive picture of the past three to five years," say Oberwittler and Svensson. But even these rather small increases cannot offset the sharp decline of the last decades.
Young people are consuming less alcohol
In addition to the figures, the researchers also looked at the causes of the decline in youth crime, summarizing and analyzing studies not only from criminological research but also from related disciplines such as psychology and addiction research. In short, the causes of the decline in crime lie in the changed living conditions of young people. Or to put it more simply: young people have better things to do than commit crime. At the same time, risky behaviors have declined, especially alcohol consumption, which is considered an important factor influencing crime.
Studies also show that relationships between parents and children have become closer in recent decades. Children and young people today are subject to greater supervision and control by their parents than they were 20 years ago. This hypothesis is supported by studies in various countries such as Iceland, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Sweden, England, and Wales. However, modern parents do not necessarily spend more physical time with their children. Control and relationship maintenance are also achieved through technological means, such as regular contact via smartphone.
In addition, school has become a more important institution for young people. Children spend more time at school, and education is (more) important to them. In general, young people spend less unplanned time with their peers. The rise of digital media could be another factor that some researchers also see as a cause of increasing loneliness among young people. However, the empirical findings on the effects of digital media are still inconclusive.
"Many questions about recent developments cannot be answered on the basis of the available empirical evidence," explain Oberwittler and Svensson. Further research is needed to determine the consequences of the increasing importance of digital media for the development of youth crime.
