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A study by UNIGE shows that, in Indonesia, deforestation has declined in supply chains with zero-deforestation commitments, but no more than in those without such commitments.
Tropical forests are essential for biodiversity, climate regulation and carbon storage. Yet they continue to disappear at an alarming rate. Many companies have adopted zero-deforestation commitments to reduce this trend. But it is crucial to determine how effective these commitments are. An international team of researchers, led by the University of Geneva (UNIGE), compared deforestation trends in Indonesia's palm oil sector between supply chains with zero-deforestation commitments and those without them. They found that, while deforestation has declined in committed supply chains, the decline was no greater than in those without such commitments, suggesting that these initiatives have had little additional effect. While these efforts may help protect forests from future pressures, they do not explain the recent decline in deforestation in Indonesia. The study appears in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
Deforestation is the conversion of forested land to other uses. According to the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), 43 million hectares of forest were lost between 2004 and 2017. Experts believe that agricultural expansion accounts for more than half of this loss. Livestock production and palm oil cultivation appear to be the greatest culprits. To curb this trend, producing countries have introduced national policies over the past decade. At the same time, many companies have adopted 'zero deforestation and conversion' (ZDC) commitments.
A team from the Geneva School of Economics (GSEM) at the UNIGE, in collaboration with researchers from the University of Cambridge, UC Santa Barbara, the University of Basel, NYU and the Transparency for Sustainable Economies (Trase), examined the effectiveness of these commitments in Indonesia's palm oil sector, one of the world's largest producers of this product. Using public databases to identify companies that had adopted zero-deforestation commitments, the researchers compared deforestation trends in supply chains linked to these companies with those in supply chains that had not adopted such commitments.
This was a complex task, as individual plantations often supply multiple companies. In total, more than 2,600 plantations were linked to 1,200 mills, which in turn were connected to 190 companies, some with zero-deforestation commitments and others without. To assess deforestation trends over time, the researchers used satellite imagery.
This pattern can likely be explained by economic conditions that were unfavourable to agricultural expansion, as well as by the Indonesian government's moratoriums, which were already contributing to limiting deforestation.
No additional effect
"Our findings show that companies are implementing their commitments and that these commitments are associated with a reduction in deforestation. However, companies without such commitments have seen a virtually comparable decline in deforestation within their supply chains. Zero-deforestation and conversion (ZDC) commitments have therefore had no additional effect beyond the public policies already implemented," says Matthieu Stigler, Assistant Professor at GSEM's Institute of Economics and Econometrics, and lead author of the study.
Scientists found that deforestation declined by 6.63 % in plantations linked to companies with ZDC. However, they observed a very similar reduction, 6.50 %, in plantations linked to companies without such commitments, suggesting that ZDC were associated with only a 0.12 % additional reduction in deforestation.
"This pattern can likely be explained by economic conditions that were unfavourable to agricultural expansion, as well as by the Indonesian government's moratoriums, which were already contributing to limiting deforestation," says Rachael Garrett, Professor of Conservation and Development at the University of Cambridge in the Department of Geography, who supervised the study.
Long-term potential?
The results suggest that ZDC commitments had no additional effect when pressure on forests was already easing up. However, the researchers do not rule out the possibility that companies with ZDC commitments could prove more effective at reducing deforestation, if this pressure were to increase — due to changing economic conditions or shifts in conservation policies. "It is in times of crisis, when pressure on forests increases, that ZDC commitments could play a truly additional protective role," says Matthieu Stigler.
Researchers at UNIGE have continued to investigate the effects of ZDC commitments on deforestation, this time focusing on Brazil's cattle sector. This research is supported by a Starting Grant from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF).
