Researchers analyze the human toll of the ongoing conflict using a statistical model that takes data uncertainties into account
To the point
- Rising death tolls: A study by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) and the Centre for Demographic Studies (CED) examined the effects of the conflict in Gaza on mortality.
- Life expectancy sharply decreased: Life expectancy in Gaza has fallen in 2024 to less than half of the level that would be expected without the war.
- Data analysis: The research team has used a statistical model that accounts for the large uncertainties caused by limited data availability.
A research team from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) and the Centre for Demographic Studies (CED) investigated the impact of the conflict in Gaza on mortality. They estimate that 78,318 (70,614-87,504) people were killed in Gaza between October 7, 2023 and December 31, 2024. As a result, life expectancy in Gaza in 2024 fell to nearly half the level expected without the war. An update of their analysis, produced after the publication of the study, revealed that the current violent death toll likely exceeds 100,000.
Armed conflict and political instability have far-reaching impacts on people's lives. A recent study by the MPIDR and the CED shows how dramatic these can be. The researchers developed an approach to analyze the impact of the war on mortality, incorporating and propagating the large uncertainty surrounding the available data on the current conflict in Gaza.
Distorted and incomplete data from conflict zones can make accurate mortality estimates difficult. Robust estimates, that incorporate the inherent uncertainty of conflict settings, are essential for assessing and communicating the effects of conflicts. Ana C. Gómez-Ugarte, Irena Chen, together and their colleagues based their estimates on data from several public sources, including the Gaza Ministry of Health (GMoH), the Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories (B'Tselem), the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN-IGME) and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS).
Accounting for measurement errors
"The tension between data limitations and the demand for meaningful metrics was the impetus for this study. We demonstrate that these challenges do not have to be mutually exclusive,' Gómez-Ugarte says. 'Our goal is to estimate life expectancy and the losses in life expectancy caused by the Gaza conflict in Palestine in a way that accounts for incomplete or sparse data.'
In their methodological study, the research team presents a model that explicitly takes into account two particular measurement errors when estimating mortality.
- The uncertainty about the total number of fatalities, which are likely under-reported by official sources; and
- the uncertainty regarding the age and gender of the victims, which are not captured in aggregate death counts.
The life expectancy at birth is shown at the national (yellow) and regional levels, using the GMoH age distributions for the Gaza Strip (red) and the B'Tselem age distribution for the West Bank (blue) for 2023 and 2024. The shapes indicate the observed life expectancy. Counterfactual scenarios of life expectancy without conflict deaths between 2012 and 2024 are indicated by the lines. For 2023 and 2024, the shapes represent the mean value, and the intervals show the 95% credible intervals.
© MPIDR
Over 100,000 People Killed in the Gaza War
Using a pseudo-Bayesian modeling approach, the study estimated that 78,318 (70,614-87,504) were killed in Gaza between October 7, 2023, and the end of 2024 as a direct result of the conflict. In a subsequent analysis conducted after publication, the authors found that by October 6, 2025, the number of conflict-related deaths in Gaza had likely surpassed 100,000.
'As a result of this unprecedented mortality, life expectancy in Gaza fell by 44% in 2023 and by 47% in 2024 compared with what it would have been without the war-equivalent to losses of 34.4 and 36.4 years, respectively,' the researcher says. The study also found that the age and gender distribution of violent deaths in Gaza between October 7, 2023, and December 31, 2024, closely resembled the demographic patterns observed in several genocides documented by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME). As genocide is a very specific legal term, certain additional criteria must be met for it to be applicable. This was not the focus of this study.
The scientists offer a flexible approach to estimating conflict-related mortality. Advances in statistical modelling make it possible to partially account for the 'statistical fog of war' when estimating mortality rates. 'Our estimates of the impact of war on life expectancy in Gaza and Palestine are significant, but probably represent only a lower limit of the actual mortality burden. Our analysis focuses exclusively on direct, conflict-related deaths. The indirect effects of war, which are often greater and more long-lasting, are not quantified in our considerations,' explains Gómez-Ugarte.
Measuring mortality rates in conflict situations is important and necessary. 'However, urgency should not be an excuse for a lack of methodological rigor. We encourage researchers working on the demography of conflict to incorporate uncertainties directly into mortality estimates using statistical tools', says the MPIDR researcher.
