Low monthly migration since April 2020

Migration has been at low levels since full border restrictions were introduced in late March, Stats NZ said today.

People's ability to travel has been limited due to COVID-19 border and travel restrictions, along with capacity restrictions in managed isolation and quarantine facilities.

In the six months from April 2020 to September 2020, overall net migration was provisionally estimated at 2,500. This was made up of a net gain of 7,200 New Zealand citizens, and a net loss of 4,700 non-New Zealand citizens.

"The net gain of New Zealand citizens continues a reversal of the long-standing historical pattern where more New Zealand citizens depart than arrive," population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said.

"Overall, however, migration flows since April 2020 remain well below those seen in previous years."

"Net migration has been high in recent years, and the six months from April to September would typically see a net gain of at least 20,000 migrants."

Annual net migration estimates decreasing

Annual net migration for the year ended September 2020 is provisionally estimated at 67,700, with 96 percent of the gain occurring in the six months from October 2019 to March 2020 in the lead-up to travel and border restrictions.

"As the COVID-19 pandemic developed many people who arrived in New Zealand in late-2019 and early-2020 have not yet returned overseas, and are staying longer than usual," Mr Islam said.

"Annual net migration estimates provisionally peaked at almost 95,000 in the year ended March 2020, however since then migration has fallen due to travel and border restrictions."

The longer people stay in New Zealand, the more likely they are to be estimated as a migrant arrival. Migration estimates could be revised up or down depending on whether these people stay in New Zealand or head back overseas.

Not all people crossing the border are migrants. Border crossings have been low from April 2020 to September 2020, with 53,500 arrivals and 105,900 departures. By comparison, the same six-month period in 2019 saw 3.2 million arrivals and 3.3 million departures.

Of the 53,500 arrivals from April 2020 to September 2020, 20,300 arrivals were New Zealand-resident travellers returning after being overseas for less than 12 months.

33,200 arrivals were overseas residents, of which 22,500 (68 percent) were New Zealand citizens. It remains to be seen how many overseas resident arrivals will stay longer than 12 months and be classed as migrants, but current provisional estimates are about 24 percent.

Overseas residents are people who usually live overseas and include both New Zealand citizens and non-New Zealand citizens.

Occupation of overseas resident arrivals

In recent months, we have been classifying occupation for all arrivals based on arrival card responses. See table 'Occupation of arrivals into New Zealand April to September 2020' in International travel: September 2020.

"Travellers arriving into the country have identified with a broad and diverse range of occupations, however we don't know whether these people will be looking to join the New Zealand workforce," Mr Islam said.

From April 2020 to September 2020 the stated occupation of overseas resident arrivals has included teachers (1,000), engineering professionals (900), miscellaneous labourers (for example, ship crew and general labourers (800)), midwifery and nursing professionals (600), and miscellaneous specialist managers (600).

About half (26,900) of all arrivals from April 2020 to September 2020 had an occupation allocated. Occupations weren't allocated to students, retirees, children, and people who didn't provide a response, or whose response couldn't be identified. Occupation information is not gathered for departures.

2 in 5 overseas residents going to Auckland

Just over 2 in 5 (about 13,000) overseas resident arrivals from April 2020 to September 2020 provided a street address in the Auckland region. By comparison, just over 1 in 3 (about 1.7 million) of New Zealand's population lives in Auckland.

"Most overseas residents are providing street addresses in North Island regions, particularly Auckland, however they may end up staying elsewhere during their time in New Zealand," Mr Islam said.

Overseas resident arrivals have also provided addresses in other regions, including Canterbury (3,000), Wellington (3,000), Waikato (2,500), and Bay of Plenty (2,100).

Just under 94 percent of overseas resident arrivals from April 2020 to September 2020 indicated an address on their arrival card. See table 'Arrivals into New Zealand by territorial authority and regional council April to September 2020' in International travel: September 2020.

Who is a migrant?

'Migrant arrivals' are overseas residents, including New Zealand citizens living overseas, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months in New Zealand after arriving.

'Migrant departures' are New Zealand residents, including non-New Zealand citizens living in New Zealand, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months out of New Zealand after departing.

Migrant arrivals and departures include the flows of New Zealand citizens as well as the flows of non-New Zealand citizens as both affect the population living in New Zealand.

The classification of travellers as migrants is based on their time spent in and out of New Zealand, not what visa type or passport they cross the border on, and not on their responses on arrival cards. Given this, we need to observe up to 16 months of travel history, using the 12/16-month rule, to definitively classify a border crossing as a migrant movement. Border crossing data after September 2020 therefore informs the latest migration estimates.

Key travel restrictions timeline

2 February 2020: New Zealand Government placed entry restrictions into New Zealand on all foreign nationals travelling from or transiting through mainland China .

2 March 2020: Travel restrictions for China and Iran to continue, and people entering the country from South Korea and northern Italy told to go into self-isolation .

14 March 2020: Every person entering New Zealand from anywhere in the world required to self-isolate for 14 days, excluding the Pacific.

19 March 2020: New Zealand's borders closed to almost all travellers, except for returning New Zealanders and New Zealanders advised not to travel overseas .

24 March 2020: Tens of thousands of New Zealanders travelling overseas advised to shelter in place .

2 April 2020: New Zealand Government announced that domestic travel restrictions would be relaxed to facilitate the departure of overseas visitors .

7 April 2020: New Zealand Government announced New Zealand to enter into transit arrangements with a number of countries to make it easier for each other's citizens to get home .

9 April 2020: New Zealand Government announced mandatory 14 day quarantine for all arrivals .

7 July 2020: New Zealand Government announced bookings on incoming Air New Zealand flights to be managed to align arrival numbers with capacity available in managed isolation and quarantine facilities .

11 August 2020: New Zealand Government introduced a payment system for arrivals for the use of managed isolation and quarantine facilities .

September 2020: New Zealand Government introduced a range of changes to border exceptions .