New York, NY (July 7, 2026) ---New Columbia University School of Nursing research reveals nurse practitioner (NP) workforce growth outpaced prior projections while physician and physician associate (PA) growth remained steady between 2016 and 2023. During this period, the NP workforce expanded at an average annual rate of 10%, while physician and PA workforces grew at 1.1% and 8.6% per year, respectively.
"Given pandemic disruptions to clinician training, early evidence that NP supply may be outpacing prior forecasts, and unprecedented growth in NP jobs, an update to current workforce projections is warranted," the authors note.
By 2030, researchers project annual growth of 1.1% for physicians, 11% for NPs, and 5.6% for PAs. These projections position NPs and PAs to help fill critical health care gaps as the U.S. population ages and demand for care grows. Staffing, training, and care policies will need to account for the surge in these health professions, according to the authors.
The study, " Workforce Projections for Physicians, Nurse Practitioners, and Physician Associates ," was published in Health Affairs on July 7, 2026.
Cohort-based modelling leads to better insights
According to the paper, its forecast diverges from the Health Resources and Services Administration projections due to differences in modelling approaches.
The research team, led by assistant professor Monica O'Reilly-Jacob, PhD, used the Cohort Supply Model to analyze 40 years of census data to separately identify two factors: how likely someone is to work at different life stages, such as during child-rearing years or near retirement, and how likely people born in a given year are to enter a particular profession. This approach treats each year's data independently, so early assumptions do not compound into later projections.
"Cohort-based modelling is especially useful in capturing workforce dynamics in predominantly female professions, where life-cycle work patterns shape participation and long-term supply," the authors explain.
The acceleration of NP workforce growth may be attributed to the challenging work environments registered nurses (RNs) face. Many RNs are turning to graduate degrees to jumpstart careers that offer predictable schedules and greater autonomy. In response, graduate nursing programs are increasing their course offerings and modalities, such as distance learning, which may explain the differences in NP and PA workforce growth.
Researchers argue that growth in the NP and PA workforces helps position these professions to fill critical care gaps, including providing primary care in underserved communities and for at-risk populations and addressing shortages in certain subspecialties such as psychiatry.
"Regulations and payment policies should more effectively leverage this growing workforce to address geographic and specialty shortages. Federal, state, and organizational policies should enable NPs and PAs to provide high-quality and cost-effective care. Ongoing monitoring of NP and PA supply and demand, and whether expanding capacity is reaching high-need communities, will be essential as the NP workforce continues its rapid growth," the authors conclude.
Other study authors include David Auerbach, PhD, Brandeis University, Heller School of Social Policy & Management; Lusine Poghosyan, PhD, Columbia University School of Nursing; Susan Kelly-Weeder, PhD, George Washington University, School of Nursing; and Sean Clarke, PhD, Emory University, Nell Hodgson Woodruff School of Nursing.
About Columbia University School of Nursing
Columbia University School of Nursing is advancing nursing education, research, and practice to advance health for all. As one of the top nursing schools in the country, we offer direct-entry master's degrees, advanced nursing, and doctoral programs with the goal of shaping and setting standards for nursing everywhere. And, as a top recipient of NIH research funding, we address health disparities for under-resourced populations and advance equitable health policy and delivery.
Through our expansive network of clinical collaborations in New York City and around the world—including our dedicated faculty practice, the ColumbiaDoctors Nurse Practitioner Group —we cultivate a culture of innovation and diversity and champion a community-centered approach to care. Across the Columbia Nursing community, we encourage active listening, big thinking, and bold action, so that, together, we're moving health forward.
Columbia University School of Nursing is part of Columbia University Irving Medical Center, which also includes the Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, the Mailman School of Public Health, and the College of Dental Medicine.
