After nearly three decades in Australian politics, Pauline Hanson and One Nation are once again gaining momentum, with recent polling suggesting the party could win as many as 59 seats if an election were held today, pointing to growing support beyond the party's conservative working-class heartland and into frustrated suburban and regional communities.
While One Nation's full policy platform is not yet clear, its proposal for new taxes on gas projects to fund a sovereign wealth fund has both major parties paying attention.
Positioned by the party as a replacement for the existing Petroleum Resource Rent Tax on new gas projects, the new policy cuts taxes on gas exploration by 30 per cent, but grants the government options for a 30 per cent claim of future gas projects.
Dr Kurt Sengul, a Research Fellow in the School of Communication, Society and Culture at Macquarie University, has been studying One Nation's successful growth – built from a complex web of nationalism, populism and political opportunism.
He says the bold new energy policy shouldn't be interpreted as a shift away from One Nation's established politics, but a clever attempt to reposition itself within Australia's changing political landscape.
"The interesting thing about One Nation is that these ideas aren't necessarily new, but the important thing with One Nation at the moment is that it feels that way because their existing policies were when they were a fringe, minor party," Sengul explains.
"They are also now a serious political player, which gives this perception that One Nation is developing policies in response to Australia's big challenges - that positions them as a legitimate policy alternative, which is pretty significant."
The gas tax proposal also highlights the influence on Parliament that a party like One Nation can wield within what Sengul describes as a political "sweet spot".
Rather than fitting neatly within traditional left-right ideologies, One Nation appears increasingly willing to combine right-leaning positions on issues such as nationalism, migration and cultural identity with a more interventionist economic approach - a balancing act that can create political advantages.
"One Nation can frame this policy as standing up to multinational gas giants trying to reap the benefits of Australia's gas reserves, but at the same time, the industry doesn't seem too unhappy with this," explains Dr Sengul.
"There has been some reporting that they wouldn't have to pay anything for at least 10 years, and there would be a 30 per cent rebate.
"It is clever and quite similar to what we see from right-wing populists in general.
"We've seen this with the Trump administration, which is also pursuing policies that take equity stakes in companies. They can appear somewhat left wing, but at the same time, are very right wing on the environment."
Internationally, populist movements have been slowly building for many years. But Dr Sengul says the speed of One Nation's recent momentum has surprised him and many in Australian political circles.
"I don't think anybody expected this," says Dr Sengul. "There was really no indication that One Nation was going to explode. I think the reasons for that are varied."
He says the collapse of the Liberal Party, alongside the convergence of several broader political and social pressures unfolding across Australia simultaneously, are factors driving voters towards populist parties and once unthinkable policies– like government's co-owning gas fields.
"We do have this ongoing and sustained intersection of several crises. Whether that's high inflation, housing affordability, or national security issues, a right-wing populist party like One Nation, has a lot to work with.
But attracting attention and translating that attention into political success are often two very different things. For One Nation, questions around long-term stability continue to loom ominously alongside the party's recent popularity.
"This is still a party that has an incredibly checkered history of disorganisation and implosion, infighting, and dysfunction," says Dr Sengul.
"Those issues won't resolve themselves."
Yet despite these concerns, One Nation seems to have developed a talent for political comebacks, breathing new life into a phrase Hanson herself is all too familiar with: "Please explain."
"They appear far more resilient to scandals, controversy and dysfunction than they used to be - that perhaps speaks to their potential success," reflects Dr Sengul.
"There are still many unknowns and reasons to think they could self-destruct, but something definitely feels different about the party."
