Long-range Forecast: First Look - May To July 2026

BOM
Our long-range forecast for May to July 2026 currently shows:

Below average rainfall is likely across large parts of eastern Australia and in the south-west.

Above average rainfall is likely in western and central parts of Western Australia.

Temperatures are likely to be above average for most of the country.

March temperatures were warmer than average for western and eastern parts of Australia.

Increased cloud cover and rainfall led to cooler than average temperatures in some northern and central regions.

During the month, there was heavy rainfall across large parts of Queensland, the north and west coasts, extending into central and southern areas.

In contrast, March rainfall was below average for parts of north-eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland, and for western Tasmania.

Root-zone soil moisture is currently above average across much of the country, and highest on record for eastern parts of South Australia following February and March rainfall.

Below average soil moisture persists in parts of the east.

The May to July forecast currently shows below average rainfall is likely for much of eastern Australia and parts of the south-west.

Rainfall is likely to be above average across some western and central parts of Western Australia, as well as parts of the east coast of Cape York Peninsula.

Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall during May to July.

Northern Australia is heading into the dry season, when rainfall totals are generally low.

For April to June, near-median to high streamflow is forecast for much of northern Australia and parts of the south-east.

Lower than median streamflow is likely in the south-west and parts of the south-east.

Daytime temperatures for May to July are likely to be above average across most of the country.

Night-time temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.

Sea surface temperatures for May to July are forecast to be warmer than average across much of the globe, including around much of Australia.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral.

For the tropical Pacific, models suggest a possible shift to El Niño by late winter.

However, there's still uncertainty around its timing and strength, with a clearer picture expected as autumn unfolds.

We update our long-range forecast regularly.

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