New analysis on the costs and benefits of electric vehicles (EVs) reveals a strong moral case for accelerating the green transition.
Recently, it has been argued that a rapid transition is unjust - particularly due to concerns about mining of critical minerals, including for EVs.
Specific concerns have been raised about deaths among artisanal/small-scale cobalt miners in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
But the new analysis shows replacing petrol and diesel cars with EVs will save vastly more lives (by reducing air pollution and heat-related deaths due to climate change) than stopping artisanal mining.
The article is published in the week the University of Exeter hosts the Exeter Climate Forum.
"Climate change is deeply unjust - it disproportionately harms poorer people worldwide, while being largely caused by rich people," said Professor Tim Lenton, from the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.
"So, rather than slowing climate action, supposedly in the name of justice, the focus should be on improving safety for miners - including artisanal miners in DRC.
"There is no doubt that the benefits of the green transition - the harms it avoids both globally and for the least advantaged people - far outweigh any harms it causes."
Tens of millions of people are already exposed to dangerous heat, and climate change is rapidly increasing this number.
In the new paper, Professor Lenton calculates the impact of vehicle emissions on heat-related deaths in the future.
Preventing fossil fuel emissions by switching to EVs is one major way to limit warming (as well as reducing air pollution), thus saving lives.
Cobalt case study
Cobalt is needed for several types of lithium-ion batteries used in EVs, and DRC provides about 70% of the global cobalt supply.
About 12% of DRC's cobalt extraction comes from artisanal mining, with the rest from industrial-scale mining.
Key findings of the new analysis:
- Based on data on mining and EV manufacture, roughly every 100,000 EVs built are associated with one artisanal mining death in DRC.
- Meanwhile, lifetime emissions from every 100 petrol or diesel vehicles lead to one heat-related death globally in the future. Additionally, roughly every 300 petrol or diesel vehicles causes one death from air pollution during their lifetimes.
- The global fleet of about 1.5 billion cars and vans (currently dominated by petrol and diesel engines) emits about 3.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually. At this level, every year's emissions will cause an estimated 520,000 to 1.5 million heat-related deaths by the year 2300.
- Even in DRC alone, heat-related deaths avoided by a global switch to EVs far exceed deaths in artisanal mining.
"When industries expand or new industries are created, risks will inevitably emerge," Professor Lenton said.
"These risks need to be managed and reduced, noting that workers in fossil fuel extraction industries also face risks.
"Additionally, the fossil fuel industry is based on continuous extraction, while minerals for the green transition are not burned away.
"They can be used long-term, then reused and recycled - so the post-fossil-fuel world is not one of endless extraction."
Professor Lenton added: "The costs of the climate crisis - including deaths from air pollution and extreme heat - are already here, and they are rapidly getting worse.
"These costs fall mostly on the poorest people in the world, as well as the old, the young and people with disabilities and health conditions.
"While we must urgently ensure safe and fair conditions for workers in every part of the green transition, slowing the transition is unjustified and unjust."
