A model built by researchers from the University of Liverpool's Management School predicts an England-Spain FIFA World Cup 2026 final, with Spain the favourites to lift the trophy - a repeat of recent major tournament history. The supercomputer correctly predicted England's second place in Euro 2024.
Using the latest machine learning technologies, this state-of-the-art forecasting model can predict match results based on the quality of individual players and how they are likely to interact with each other on the pitch.
Having run 1,000 simulations, factoring in everything from fitness to the all-important weather, Dr Benjamin Holmes and Professor Ian McHale from the Centre for Sports Business have predicted every nation's chance of winning the World Cup and of reaching each knockout round.
The supercomputer rates England's probability of glory at 17% compared to 26.1% for Spain. Other close competitors are France (13.5%), with current champions Argentina in 4th (12.4%) and Portugal's chances lying at 10.6%.
England are predicted to win their Group with most likely subsequent opponents being DR Congo then Mexico, before a facing a Brazil quarter-final and a Portugal semi-final.
Other home nation hopes lie with Scotland, who the supercomputer predicts will come third in their Group, with an 11.8% probability of reaching the final 16.
The coveted Golden Boot is a toss up between Norway's Erling Haaland and Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal, with both predicted to score 5.2 goals across the simulations.
Dr Benjamin Holmes said: "Since Euro 2024, we have expanded our simulation model with a host of new features. The core idea remains the same: estimating the abilities of players and how they interact with each other and their opponents.
"We have now added simulations of injuries, suspensions and who scores the goals. We even model the playing conditions, capturing the weather and altitude that matter so much in this year's expansive tournament across three host countries. Whilst our model agrees with the bookmakers in making Spain the favourites, Norway emerge as the standout dark horse, with a 3.6% chance of winning the trophy across our simulations."
