Well, those showers and thunderstorms will move eastwards into western parts of South Australia. Also notice that the low pressure system down to the south has weakened, and we're expecting a low to develop up closer to the land. This is the system that will bring impacts to the south-east over the weekend. In terms of thunderstorms today, we're expecting the main storm risk to be over the southern interior and the Eucla district in Western Australia, although there is also a possible risk down along the south coast and also extending into western parts of South Australia as we go through the day. Now this yellow area shows where we could see severe thunderstorms, and in this case the main hazard expected with severe thunderstorms is damaging wind gusts.
In terms of what we're expecting over Saturday, that system will continue to move eastwards. It will be a windy day, northerly winds ahead of the front and then also windy conditions wrapping around this low pressure system, particularly for coastal areas. We'll see showers and thunderstorms extending across the state. In fact, the storm risk does extend across most of South Australia and also into the far west of New South Wales and north-western Victoria as well. Once again, these yellow areas are where we could see severe thunderstorms, and again the risk is damaging wind gusts.
On Sunday, that system is going to make its way across New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. We will actually see the band of showers and thunderstorms out well ahead of the low pressure system, which is lingering back south of South Australia. What that will mean is even though we have quite a windy day, will see northerly winds, we won't see the south-westerly wind change that we often see behind a cold front in the south-east. The winds will stay north-westerly as that low pressure system is yet to move through. Once again, there is the risk of thunderstorms extending from southern Queensland down through inland parts of New South Wales and into Victoria. Again, the yellow areas showing where we could see severe thunderstorms, but in this case the main hazard we're expecting with severe storms is the risk of heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. That's mostly through north-eastern parts of Victoria, southern parts of New South Wales, and also extending down into the Yarra Ranges and West Gippsland, and possibly even the outer eastern suburbs of Melbourne.
On Monday, that system will clear through the south-east, but the low pressure system will follow, moving through Bass Strait over the course of Monday and into Tuesday morning. That will maintain some showers through southern Victoria and parts of Tasmania, and also windy conditions, across particularly southern Victoria. So how much rainfall are we expecting with this system? Well, let's take a look at the rainfall between now and the end of Monday. We can see quite widespread blues and yellows, and that's light to moderate rainfall between maybe 5 to 20 mm. But it's the darker oranges and purples that show us where the heaviest rainfall could be, and in particular we can see there's a focus around north-east Victoria and southern parts of New South Wales. Also, some decent rainfall accumulations over northern parts of Tasmania.
Now, many parts of New South Wales and Victoria have been particularly dry through April, so this rainfall is likely to be good news for many people. We're also expecting some quite large waves with this system moving through. We're not actually expecting to reach warning thresholds for the waves in terms of this system, but we could see abnormally high tides, particularly along the South Australian and Victorian coasts over the weekend and into the start of next week. Finally, we're going to see some quite hot weather ahead of this system. We have been seeing unseasonably warm conditions over the last couple of weeks, but now that we've moved into May, we are looking at the potential for some May records to be broken in terms of heat today and tomorrow. Our overnight minimum temperatures tonight could well be up into the low 20s in some areas, and that could see some May records fall, and maximum temperatures tomorrow up into the mid 30s. In some cases, high 20s could also see some new records being set during the day tomorrow.
However, as we move into Sunday, we do see that cooler air extending across South Australia and into western Victoria, with maximum temperatures dropping just back into the high teens. And finally on Monday, the cold air will make its way right across the south-east, with much cooler temperatures. And this will feel particularly cool, particularly given the warm temperatures we've had recently. So there's a lot of weather expected over this weekend, and it's going to be really important to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings on the Bureau's website and the BOM Weather app. We'll keep you updated on social media. Have a wonderful weekend, and we'll see you again soon.
Video current: 1:00 pm AEST Friday 01/05/26.
