As many as 88,000 people were forced to flee their homes when a wildfire ravaged Fort McMurray, Alta. in 2016, leaving widespread devastation in its wake.
Even so, it was far from a worst-case scenario.
The blaze could have been even more damaging if the weather had been hotter, windier or drier - conditions that are becoming more likely amid climate change.
The Fort McMurray wildfire is one of several scenarios that Ron Baecker , a professor emeritus in the University of Toronto's department of computer science , and an interdisciplinary team of researchers across Canada are reinterpreting with the creative use of flood and fire modelling, data visualization, design, planning and environmental psychology.
The ultimate goal of the Envisioning Climate Futures project? Spur individuals, communities and governments to take action to mitigate climate change while providing stakeholders with illustrative tools that can help them understand and evaluate the impact of different choices.
"If we can show people that the floods and fires they're already worried about will get worse with inaction - but that concrete steps can make things better - I think that's a powerful way to get people and society to move," Baecker says.
The team starts with a documented extreme weather event and then builds or adapts simulation models that they then validate - a key step that Baecker notes is one of the toughest technical challenges. Next, the team converts the raw data into images and animations that can help people thoughtfully engage with the hypothetical scenarios (they're also hoping to one day produce immersive experiences and even video games).
In one example, the researchers focused on flooding along Little Etobicoke Creek in Mississauga, Ont. Engineers' recommendations have included a new channel and a new bridge at a bend in the creek. The researchers recreated and visualized major flood events from 2013 and 2024 and found that both structures would be required to mitigate anticipated damage in those scenarios because each intervention by itself would fail to provide sufficient protection.
The team includes U of T computer science faculty members Fanny Chevalier , Steve Engels and Karan Singh , as well as John Danahy , professor emeritus of landscape architecture in U of T's John H. Daniels Faculty of Architecture, Landscape, and Design. Ten U of T students and recent graduates contributed to the effort. Other collaborators across Canada include experts from OCAD University, University of Prince Edward Island, Vancouver Island University and the Canadian Forest Service.
To date, the researchers have applied their modelling to the reconstructed mouth of Toronto's Don River, demonstrating much-improved flood resilience in the Port Lands area of the city. They have also begun recreating the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire and, in partnership with the Climate Smart Lab at UPEI, modelling coastal flooding scenarios.
"We're not going to solve the climate problem by ourselves," Baecker says. "But I'm only 83 years young - time to see what I can do."
