A new analysis of global obesity trends since the 1980s reveals rising levels of obesity have slowed, stabilised and possibly even reversed in many nations, challenging the idea of a 'global epidemic' of obesity.
The work, led by researchers from Imperial College London via the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) and published in the journal Nature, looked at more than four decades of health data from 200 countries and territories, covering the period from 1980 to 2024.
The findings come as experts from around the world meet at the European Congress on Obesity (ECO 2026) in Istanbul this month, and provide a more optimistic picture of progress than previously reported.
Ultimately, this analysis shows that the trend towards obesity is not inevitable, and that it is possible for policy makers to intervene to stop and even reverse growing obesity. Professor Majid Ezzati School of Public Health
They show that the increase in obesity rates has slowed or levelled off in most high-income countries despite rapid rises at the end of the 20th Century, slowing first in school-aged children followed by a slowdown in adults about a decade later.
In some high-income countries (including France, Italy and Portugal) rates may have even begun to decline.
According to the researchers, these latest findings suggest that previous claims of a 'global epidemic' of obesity are likely an oversimplification and mask the huge diversity seen across countries – which can be driven by a range of factors, especially the availability and affordability of healthy foods.
However, they highlight that obesity prevalence continues to rise in many low‑ and middle‑income countries, particularly in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Pacific and Caribbean island nations.
The researchers say that by focusing on the pace of change in obesity over time, rather than just the prevalence, we can learn where urgent action is needed, including robust health and food policies to help nations adapt and manage public health during economic, technological and nutritional transitions.
Professor Majid Ezzati, from the School of Public Health at Imperial College London and Academic Director of Imperial Global Ghana, who led the analysis, said: "We've been analysing obesity trends for decades and have shown that on the whole, obesity has increased – with more people being affected by overweight and obesity.
"This latest analysis suggests that the rate of growth in obesity is slowing and stabilising, and may even be reversing, in many countries. This offers a more optimistic picture that progress is being made and challenges the widely accepted view that we're experiencing a global epidemic of obesity – which may be an oversimplification of the diversity of the situation in different countries. By focusing on the rate of change, we can better understand and benchmark the progress of nations in preventing and tackling obesity – so not just where we are right now, but where we're headed.
"We now need to find out why some countries are doing so much better than others and apply the lessons to stop obesity from increasing. Ultimately, this analysis shows that the trend towards obesity is not inevitable, and that it is possible for policy makers to intervene to stop and even reverse growing obesity."
Dr Jennifer Baker, President-Elect of the European Association for the Study of Obesity and The Center for Clinical Research and Prevention, Copenhagen University Hospital, said: "There has been real progress on childhood obesity in parts of Europe and around the world, but we cannot become complacent. Levels remain too high, and globally the picture is strikingly uneven, with continued increases in some countries."
