Researchers say accurately predicting Antarctica's impact on global sea levels is an urgent priority that can be achieved by analysing the DNA of tiny land animals, pinpointing the continent's icy past to paint a clearer picture of the future.
In the commentary published in the journal One Earth, co-authored by scientists from Monash University, Queensland University of Technology and the University of Texas, researchers identify that the DNA of creatures in specific regions can provide a roadmap of ice sheet collapse during previous warm periods in Earth's history.
If two distant groups of animals such as springtails have similar DNA, that suggests the ice between them must have melted away at some point in the past, creating a corridor that allowed them to meet and breed. If their DNA is different, it suggests they have been separated by a massive, permanent wall of ice for a long time.
Lead author Dr Richard Jones, from Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future (SAEF) at Monash University, said biological data provides fresh insights where traditional geological evidence is limited.
"Direct empirical evidence of the size of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in past warm periods, including the potential for collapse, is lacking, ambiguous or contested," Dr Jones said.
"Strategically harnessing terrestrial biological data offers a powerful, independent avenue to test scenarios of collapse, reducing the uncertainty in future sea-level projections."
Resolving the guess work of ice-sheet stability is critical, with marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet vulnerable to collapse.
According to the 2025 National Climate Risk Assessment, sea-level rise is projected to expose over 1.5 million people in Australian coastal communities to extreme flooding by 2050, compromising critical infrastructure.
Professor Steven Chown, Director of SAEF, said the approach requires close interdisciplinary collaboration between biologists, geneticists and glaciologists.
"We want to look for animals in specific locations that are currently separated by either small or large expanses of uninhabitable ice," Professor Chown said.
"Because life in Antarctica is fundamentally linked to the presence and absence of ice, biological data provide a critical line of evidence for past ice-sheet collapse, so helping to project the future. A future critical to human livelihoods."
The research identifies high priority target regions, such as the Hudson Mountains, Ford Ranges, and Shackleton Range, where biological surveys can provide the decisive evidence needed to confirm past ice sheet retreats.
By pinpointing these locations where ice sheet models currently show the most uncertainty, the study establishes a framework for future international expeditions to focus on the areas most likely to help understand the history of the Antarctic ice sheet.
RESEARCHERS
The article was led by Dr Richard Jones and a team of Monash University researchers including Dr Amy Liu, Laura Phillips, Professor Steven Chown and Dr Helena Baird, also of the Queensland University of Technology, along with Dr Anna Ruth Halberstadt from the University of Texas at Austin.
This work was supported by Australian Research Council SRIEAS Grant SR200100005 (Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future) and aligns with the key priorities of the Australian Antarctic Science Decadal Strategy 2025-2035. The authors declare no competing interests.
About Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future
Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future is a Monash-led research and workforce development program, funded by the Australian Research Council. SAEF is delivering leading Antarctic and Southern Ocean science to benefit Australians, our neighbours in the Asia-Pacific, and society around the globe in the context of a changing climate.
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